On April 13th, Nintendo discontinued the NES Classic Edition in North America. The only explanation that they gave is that they always intended for it to be a limited edition release, and that they have in fact produced more than they originally expected to.
Understandably, the Internet erupted in reaction. There are still a lot of people who wanted one, and now never will. My heart goes out to each and every one of them. Just searching Twitter alone is a gut wrenching experience.
The news also brought out all the assholes and opportunists that dwell online. I’m not just talking about the scalpers (who immediately jacked up the prices on their own stock), but the tech writers and pundits who used the news as a chance to come up with a clickbait articles with titles like “The TRUE reason Nintendo killed the Classic”, in which they simply offer wild, often illogical speculation.
And unfortunately, speculation is all we have, which is why everyone remains in a state of confusion and disbelief. Let’s try and cut through some of that confusion by putting some of the speculation to rest.
Limited Edition?
A lot of people are calling BS on Nintendo’s claim that the Classic was always meant to be a limited edition item. One of their pieces of evidence is this quote from NOA president Reggie Fils-Aime regarding NES Classic shortages back in January 2017:
The good news, at least for consumers in the Americas, is we’re going to continue to make the NES Classic available. With the ongoing level of supply, the ongoing demand is going to be met. We know the concern.
Many are assuming that this confirms that the Classic was not, in fact, a limited run product, and that Nintendo is now backpedaling. If we parse this quote carefully, however, Reggie never actually says that it is or isn’t. All he says is that demand will be met.
But it is still a damning quote, because demand has clearly not been met. And when fans hear a statement like this, they are going to assume that it means Nintendo is somehow keeping track of demand, in which case it would be obvious that they can’t stop production just yet. In reality, however, they are a large business that can probably come up with some weasely metric that convinces them that most people who wanted a Classic found one, thus justifying this decision to themselves. So even if Nintendo technically didn’t contradict themselves, they still managed to show that their statements cannot be trusted.
This isn’t how limited runs work
Lots of companies come out with limited edition printings of niche products. Like Nintendo, the manufacturers of these products do not want to be left with much, if any, unsold stock. The solution to this is simple, and very commonly adopted in this situation: you put the product up for preorder well in advance, and use the media to let fans know that supplies will be limited. This gives them enough warning to prepare, and the company gets a rough estimate of how many units they need to produce. Everyone wins.
Not only did Nintendo not take this approach, but they actually forbade retailers from offering preorders. Any reasonable consumer would interpret this as a sign that Nintendo would have so many Classics available that there would be no need for preorders. On the other hand, there is no possible way anyone interpreted this as meaning the console was a limited edition. If Nintendo is serious in their statement as to why they’re ending production, then they took the absolute wrong approach to releasing this product, and anyone who is still feeling confused and distrustful has every reason to.
Now let’s go through some of the theories that are permeating online …
Theory 1 - The Virtual Console
A related theory is that Nintendo realized they could make more money selling the games individually on the Virtual Console. This is easily the laziest theory of the bunch. The pundits who are claiming this are the same ones who claim that the Wii U and the 3DS are dead products. If that’s the case, then how can Nintendo make much money of their respective Virtual Consoles?
More likely they are referring to the Virtual Console on the Switch, which is why this theory is so stupid, because the Switch doesn’t yet have one. And if Nintendo is preparing to launch it soon, you can bet they’d make an announcement about it.
Theory 2 - The Switch
This leads to the other common theory, that Nintendo didn’t want the NES Classic to take attention away from the Switch and/or cannibalize its sales.
Ummm …. have you seen any Switches sitting on shelves? It is now the company’s best hardware launch ever. How could the NES classic possibly be cannibalizing its sales when neither unit can be found?
I also don’t buy the idea that someone would buy an NES Classic in lieu of the Switch. They don’t currently share any games in common, and the Classic’s library can’t be expanded (at least not legally). Not to mention that most people are going to buy a Switch for its new games, not the retro ones. This theory is arguably the most popular right now, but I also think it is the laziest of the bunch. It just doesn’t add up for me no matter what angle I look at it from.
Theory 3 - Licenses
Did the licenses for some of the games expire? I guess it’s possible, though Nintendo now has eleven years of experience licensing games for the Virtual Console. They (should) know what to do. Maybe they deliberately signed a contract that offered an extremely limited timeframe for the licenses.
Theory 4 - Hacking
The NES Classic is easy to hack, allowing you to add new games and even emulators for other consoles. Nintendo hates this kind of stuff, and the theory states that they pulled the plug on the Classic to prevent unauthorized use of theirs (and other’s) Intellectual Property.
The immediate counter argument is that plenty of other Nintendo consoles have been hacked, and none of those were removed from shelves. This is true, but what exactly is the process of hacking those other consoles? I remember that at one point getting the Homebrew Channel on the Wii required you to own a specific game and that your Wii firmware be a specific version. Hardly impossible, but I bet it was just enough of a hassle to dissuade a lot of people from trying.
In order to hack the NES classic, on the other hand, all you need is a Windows PC and a GUI based tool that comes complete with step by step instructions. There are tons of videos on Youtube showing it to be a simple and painless process.
If that’s the case, then this theory starts to get stronger, right? If it becomes that easy to add new NES games, and even games for other consoles, then maybe Nintendo does have to worry about the health of the future Switch Virtual Console.
Just kidding. This is the danger of conflating the Internet with the real world - just because a bunch of passionate gamers are hacking the hell out of the NES Classic doesn’t mean that the general population of both Classic owners and potential owners would actually do so. Even if you got them to follow the instructions, as soon as you tell them anything about the nature of ROMs and how to get them, they are going to walk away. So no, I do not think this is a valid explanation.
Theory 5 - Something new
Some speculate that a new gizmo is coming to replace the NES Classic, like a SNES Classic, or an updated version with a built-in VC storefront. One of these products may one day arrive, but I don’t think that’s the reason why the Classic is dead. If I’m Nintendo, I’d be telling everyone across the world that I had something new in store. It would take a ton of heat off of me, and may generate fresh hype too.
Theory 6 - Switch Stock
This one is semi-decent. The argument goes that Nintendo needs to transfer the manufacturing capability used for the NES Classic to the Switch in order to meet demand. But I don’t think most of us know enough about how this works to know if this is easy or cost effective in any way shape or form.
So what’s the truth?
We may never know. Or we may simply not know for a few more days or weeks. But if I had to take a guess - and I’m not at all confident in this one - I’d chalk it up to Nintendo being a very conservative company who ends to play it safe. They probably assumed they could dump the Classic onto the holiday market, and that a couple middle aged dads might pick it up for themselves. They made their quarterly projections accordingly. When things got out of hand, they decided they’d rather pull the plug than deviate from their initial plans, knowing full well that they had a freight train of Switch hype to offset any ill will from fans.
This isn’t the first time they’ve pissed their audience of, nor will it be the last. Because as frustrating as it is, so far it hasn’t put them out of business. People will get angry for a while, but sooner or later they all come back.
Or will they? That’s the question Nintendo needs to ask themselves. Because the day may come where the fans don’t return. Sooner or later people who can’t obtain their products will stop caring about them, and if happens for long enough, you risk losing that customer for life. If I were the Big N, I would be treading lightly right now.